Mon, Mar 30, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 318 | 213 | 544 |
| MTL | 07 | 16 | 215 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:24TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ben Bishop · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 4:24MTLMax PaciorettySHAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:57TBLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Ben Bishop · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 18:07TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 0:23MTLJeff PetryAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 6:21TBLVladislav NamestnikovGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 16:10MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:03TBLAnton StralmanENAssists: Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.46 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:39MTLTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:16MTLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:55MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:45TBLLuke Witkowski: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:07MTLDale Weise: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:07MTLDale Weise: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:13TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:32TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:48MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:48TBLBen Bishop: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Killorn – Stamkos9:12
xG 0.62–0.10 (87%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Callahan – Paquette – Drouin8:24
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown6:20
xG 0.36–0.18 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Namestnikov7:57
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Nesterov7:02
xG 0.91–0.03 (97%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Witkowski – Hedman6:50
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Stralman – Barberio2:23
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk6:29
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher4:45
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Galchenyuk4:44
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Weise3:52
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Pateryn3:55
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu9:08
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Markov – Petry3:37
xG 0.23–0.25 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).