Mon, Mar 30, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 15 | 316 | 14 | 525 |
| DAL | 210 | 011 | 115 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40DALJason SpezzaAssists: Patrick Eaves, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:34CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:26DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 9:25CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman · Deflected, 0.44 xG2–2
- P2 12:27CGYRaphael DiazAssists: David Jones, Lance Bouma · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 16:14CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 3:44DALJason DemersAssists: Jamie Benn, Vernon Fiddler · Deflected, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:53CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:18DALCurtis McKenzie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:43CGYLance Bouma: Holding2 min
- P1 14:41CGYSean Monahan: Delaying game2 min
- P1 16:16DALBrett Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:54CGYMicheal Ferland: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:40DALBrett Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:42CGYDeryk Engelland: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:15
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Granlund9:49
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Stajan – Shore – Ferland6:23
xG 0.02–0.36 (6%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma9:52
xG 0.04–1.01 (4%)attempts 4–25goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Schlemko – Diaz7:32
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Wideman – Russell17:11
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 11–23goals 1–0
- Engelland – Brodie17:56
xG 0.26–1.06 (20%)attempts 10–31goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Roussel – Garbutt8:50
xG 0.64–0.06 (92%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin13:35
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 25–8goals 0–1
- Spezza – Hemsky – Eaves10:41
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Horcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie6:05
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Jokipakka12:55
xG 0.95–0.19 (84%)attempts 32–9goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:38
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 26–7goals 0–1
- Daley – Nemeth12:22
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).