Tue, Mar 31, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 212 | 05 | 225 |
| WSH | 211 | 28 | 01 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46WSHMike GreenAssists: Tom Wilson, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:12WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 5:00CARNathan GerbeAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 10:33CAREric StaalAssists: Chris Terry, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 17:06WSHBrooks LaichGWGAssists: Jason Chimera, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:28WSHJoel WardAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P3 1:57WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:50WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Terry – Nestrasil13:58
xG 0.88–0.28 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Semin – Gerbe – Staal13:59
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone10:02
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm10:22
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Murphy13:01
xG 0.72–0.33 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Murphy2:36
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Liles – Faulk2:03
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Backstrom – Johansson15:23
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Ward – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov13:24
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Glencross – Latta – Wilson9:13
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Chimera – Laich – Fehr11:57
xG 0.16–0.94 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Green15:29
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 3–0
- Orpik – Carlson20:13
xG 0.54–0.80 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner17:42
xG 0.56–0.84 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).