Tue, Mar 31, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 012 | 18 | 01 | 3 | 234 |
| DET | 05 | 14 | 07 | 01 | 2 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:43DETGustav NyquistAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 15:58OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 2. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 3. DET Tomas Tatar scored
- 4. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 5. DET Marek Zidlicky stopped
- 6. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 7. DET Stephen Weiss stopped
- 8. OTT Mark Stone scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:11DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P2 9:12OTTMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12OTTClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:42OTTEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P2 12:58DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:11DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:16OTTAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:23DETStephen Weiss: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:26OTTMark Stone: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone11:44
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Legwand – Hoffman – Chiasson5:49
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar11:31
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Smith – Zibanejad6:12
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson16:37
xG 1.08–0.35 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki7:40
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci9:29
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Cleary – Andersson – Jurco2:16
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Tatar – Glendening2:46
xG 0.01–0.02 (34%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist9:37
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Pulkkinen – Jurco – Glendening2:59
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zidlicky – Smith12:29
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:17
xG 0.37–0.89 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:54
xG 0.37–1.40 (21%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).