Tue, Mar 31, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 5, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 212 | 26 | 00 | 2 | 525 |
| NSH | 211 | 19 | 116 | 02 | 0 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30NSHCody FransonPPAssists: Mike Fisher · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 8:15NSHTaylor BeckAssists: Paul Gaustad · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 4:04VANLinden VeyAssists: Derek Dorsett, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:04VANJannik HansenAssists: Nick Bonino, Dan Hamhuis · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:30NSHViktor StalbergAssists: Anton Volchenkov · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 1:23VANAlexandre BurrowsSHUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 5:48VANChris HigginsPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 14:57NSHMike FisherPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Mike Santorelli stopped
- 2. VAN Nick Bonino scored
- 3. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 4. VAN Radim Vrbata scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:36VANKevin Bieksa: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 10:24NSHViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:24VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:21NSHMike Fisher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:19VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:40VANHenrik Sedin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:27NSHCraig Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 19:30VANRonalds Kenins: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:24VANRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:04NSHCraig Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:19VANChris Higgins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:06VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference5 min
- P3 16:06VANAlexandre Burrows: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:06VANKevin Bieksa: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Vrbata – Higgins – Bonino7:08
xG 0.21–0.20 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hansen – Horvat – Kenins8:28
xG 0.14–0.16 (48%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:41
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Dorsett – Matthias – Vey6:20
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Sbisa13:31
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber10:15
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Edler – Weber2:34
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Beck – Bourque7:05
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Stalberg – Jarnkrok7:07
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg9:52
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson7:17
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Ellis9:58
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Josi – Jones13:50
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Franson – Ekholm11:13
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).