Tue, Mar 31, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 17 | 18 | 324 |
| WPG | 116 | 17 | 011 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16WPGJim SlaterAssists: Chris Thorburn, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 9:42NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 1:24WPGLee StempniakAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:13NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 16:14NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:20WPGJiri Tlusty: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:25NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:31WPGMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:31NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:21WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Stepan – Kreider – Miller12:04
xG 0.55–0.66 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:20
xG 0.42–0.73 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Fast9:54
xG 0.15–0.56 (21%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Moore – Glass – Sheppard8:03
xG 0.04–0.56 (7%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boyle – McDonagh2:32
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle2:31
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi3:01
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik14:17
xG 0.87–0.26 (77%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Tlusty7:13
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele12:54
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Perreault – Lowry10:13
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers18:57
xG 0.93–0.43 (69%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba13:06
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 23–3goals 2–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:08
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).