Wed, Apr 1, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 18 | 28 | 431 |
| PIT | 17 | 08 | 010 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:14PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 12:43PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Brandon Manning, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 0:49PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 5:34PHICarlo ColaiacovoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:29PHIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:52PITNick Spaling: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:11PHINick Schultz: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:30PITBrandon Sutter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:49PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:02PITDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P2 18:57PITSteve Downie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:23PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:23PHIZac Rinaldo: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl9:09
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare8:43
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- White – Rinaldo – Cousins5:24
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Read – Couturier8:01
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Manning11:13
xG 0.76–0.18 (81%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Streit – Grossmann9:52
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Streit – Del Zotto3:53
xG 0.04–0.07 (39%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Crosby – Hornqvist8:45
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Perron2:58
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Comeau – Sutter2:12
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Bennett3:55
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Cole3:19
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Pouliot4:49
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Cole6:35
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).