Wed, Apr 1, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 1, Anaheim Ducks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 111 | 05 | 123 |
| ANA | 27 | 212 | 18 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:59ANANate ThompsonGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 8:33ANACorey PerryAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 12:06ANASimon DespresAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 17:05EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 5:14ANAAndrew CoglianoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 5:08ANAJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:09EDMTaylor Hall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:57EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P2 14:57ANANate Thompson: Embellishment2 min
- P3 5:14EDMOscar Klefbom: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 9:55ANACam Fowler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:20ANARickard Rakell: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rakell won the faceoff against Lander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLander – Hall – Miller15:10
xG 0.84–0.50 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Klinkhammer – Gazdic – Fraser6:42
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov12:58
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:20
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Davidson13:24
xG 0.69–0.47 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Marincin15:58
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Klefbom13:46
xG 0.19–0.59 (25%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:49
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 3–1
- Fleischmann – Etem – Wagner7:54
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Getzlaf – Perry2:54
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Sekac9:27
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm13:07
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 3–0
- Wisniewski – Despres15:40
xG 0.89–0.73 (55%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Fowler17:34
xG 0.69–0.70 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).