Wed, Apr 1, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 07 | 15 | 120 |
| SJS | 010 | 18 | 412 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:35SJSScott HannanAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 8:01SJSChris TierneyGWGAssists: Matt Nieto, Taylor Fedun · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 8:54COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Zach Redmond, John Mitchell · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 10:12SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Logan Couture · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 15:55SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Melker Karlsson, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–4
- P3 16:28SJSJohn ScottENAssists: Ben Smith · Backhand, 0.49 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:29COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:18SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:37SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Caron – Hishon – Hamilton7:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:55
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Iginla – Mitchell – Duchene14:46
xG 0.49–0.93 (35%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg13:05
xG 0.21–0.89 (19%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie7:13
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Stuart – Holden19:19
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Guenin – Redmond6:53
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Nieto – Tierney12:11
xG 1.55–0.29 (84%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson15:06
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Scott – Smith – Goodrow8:01
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Hertl11:49
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Fedun13:54
xG 1.05–0.23 (82%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon17:54
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Hannan – Burns12:44
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).