Thu, Apr 2, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 110 | 112 | 00 | 0 | 328 |
| CBJ | 19 | 09 | 214 | 07 | 2 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54NYIEric BoultonAssists: Casey Cizikas, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 7:06CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Dalton Prout, Artem Anisimov · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:03NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 0:55NYIRyan StromeAssists: Travis Hamonic, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 11:08CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 16:17CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Cam Atkinson, David Savard · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Mark Letestu scored
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. CBJ Ryan Johansen scored
- 4. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:54NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:47CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:00CBJCody Goloubef: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 0:22NYIJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKulemin – Tavares – Strome12:39
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey13:22
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Lee – Nelson7:43
xG 0.18–0.32 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas7:50
xG 0.41–0.68 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy15:36
xG 0.87–0.27 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey16:44
xG 0.52–0.72 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
- Strait – Hamonic17:03
xG 0.63–0.88 (42%)attempts 8–26goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Morin – Wennberg13:09
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Calvert6:11
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Johansen – Jenner13:03
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Anisimov12:54
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Connauton15:24
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout18:05
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard17:13
xG 0.91–1.20 (43%)attempts 17–16goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).