Thu, Apr 2, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 02 | 29 | 26 | 02 | 1 | 519 |
| MTL | 06 | 37 | 113 | 01 | 0 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:58MTLJeff PetryAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:36WSHJoel WardAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:08WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Braden Holtby · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:47MTLTom GilbertAssists: PA Parenteau, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 18:39MTLLars EllerAssists: Dale Weise, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 11:06WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 12:19WSHJoel WardPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 15:01MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 4. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 5. MTL PA Parenteau stopped
- 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 7. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 8. WSH Troy Brouwer scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:48WSHBrooks Laich: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:57WSHBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min
- P2 11:42MTLBrandon Prust: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:18MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:16WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:31MTLTorrey Mitchell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:18MTLCarey Price: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 14:23WSHCurtis Glencross: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Backstrom – Johansson8:33
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Fehr6:28
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom2:52
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Glencross3:46
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Green11:40
xG 0.57–0.25 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson16:29
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Orpik – Green2:27
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:05
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – de la Rose8:33
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Galchenyuk12:48
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Prust – Eller – Weise9:29
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry15:26
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu14:51
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban13:26
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).