Thu, Apr 2, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 010 | 08 | 02 | 129 |
| OTT | 115 | 08 | 08 | 13 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03OTTMark StoneAssists: Kyle Turris, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P1 16:53TBLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 4:43OTTPatrick WierciochGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:12TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P1 10:58OTTErik Condra: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:23OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:23TBLRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:10OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:56TBLBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:13TBLCedric Paquette: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:04TBLLuke Witkowski: Holding2 min
- P2 19:22OTTDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:45TBLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:09OTTEric Gryba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Namestnikov6:34
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown7:12
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Drouin6:54
xG 0.08–0.13 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Stamkos9:50
xG 0.38–0.47 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Koekkoek2:11
xG 0.48–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Carle – Koekkoek11:30
xG 0.56–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Barberio – Witkowski12:31
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad2:18
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Zibanejad4:15
xG 0.12–0.03 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Ryan – Smith2:16
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hoffman – Chiasson2:13
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci10:32
xG 0.80–0.18 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:12
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci4:23
xG 0.01–0.18 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).