Thu, Apr 2, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 08 | 310 | 325 |
| DET | 014 | 112 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:19DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Stephen Weiss · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 2:52DETStephen WeissPPAssists: Riley Sheahan, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 5:05BOSCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P3 7:19BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Reilly Smith, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 17:52BOSZach TrotmanGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:12BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:29BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P2 4:27DETBrendan Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:56BOSChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:42DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:58BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:28DETKyle Quincey: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:39BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:12DETStephen Weiss: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Soderberg – Smith4:45
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Kelly – Campbell – Pastrnak2:12
xG 0.11–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith3:53
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Connolly3:06
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Trotman12:08
xG 0.67–0.63 (52%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:06
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Bartkowski7:31
xG 0.06–0.45 (13%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist10:13
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Cleary – Miller – Glendening8:58
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Weiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen5:56
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Helm – Tatar – Sheahan8:49
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson13:53
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser11:50
xG 0.90–0.48 (65%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Zidlicky – Smith12:48
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).