Thu, Apr 2, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 08 | 112 | 132 |
| FLA | 110 | 317 | 28 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:10FLAWillie MitchellAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 5:01FLABrandon PirriGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 13:01FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P2 16:27FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Erik Gudbranson · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 6:07FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–5
- P3 6:45FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–6
- P3 18:41CARChris TerryPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 2:07FLATomas Kopecky: Interference2 min
- P3 15:39CARJeff Skinner: Holding2 min
- P3 18:19FLADerek MacKenzie: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Terry – Nestrasil5:27
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Semin – Skinner – Lindholm5:59
xG 0.13–0.09 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone8:43
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Semin – Skinner – Rask7:16
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jordan – Biega15:02
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
- Hainsey – Murphy9:03
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Liles – Murphy8:00
xG 0.17–0.44 (27%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov15:48
xG 1.32–0.25 (84%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Trocheck12:39
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky9:05
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bolland – Pirri11:42
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Petrovic16:19
xG 1.22–0.28 (81%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson17:45
xG 1.14–0.60 (66%)attempts 19–15goals 3–0
- Campbell – Ekblad17:57
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).