Thu, Apr 2, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 14 | 08 | 118 |
| STL | 114 | 118 | 211 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16STLJaden SchwartzAssists: T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:23STLPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: David Backes, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 3:35CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 16:45STLJori LehteraAssists: Patrik Berglund · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 17:55STLPatrik BerglundENAssists: Jori Lehtera, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:31CGYJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:48CGYBrandon Bollig: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 17:48CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:48CGYBrandon Bollig: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:48STLRobert Bortuzzo: Instigator2 min
- P1 17:48STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:48STLRobert Bortuzzo: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:03STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:58STLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:19STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:43
xG 0.76–0.59 (56%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Stajan – Shore – Bollig2:24
xG 0.08–0.06 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Colborne – Bouma2:00
xG 0.02–0.12 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma5:47
xG 0.11–0.53 (18%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schlemko – Brodie2:42
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell15:06
xG 0.77–0.98 (44%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Engelland – Brodie12:29
xG 0.26–0.57 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Oshie – Schwartz10:23
xG 0.86–0.22 (79%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves7:28
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Lehtera – Rattie8:49
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Backes – Berglund – Jaskin10:35
xG 0.58–0.69 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Shattenkirk13:23
xG 1.24–0.40 (76%)attempts 24–10goals 1–1
- Jackman – Bortuzzo11:49
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:06
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).