Thu, Apr 2, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 26 | 010 | 110 | 326 |
| MIN | 09 | 18 | 111 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09NYRDominic MooreAssists: Carl Hagelin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 14:37NYRRick NashPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Ryan McDonagh · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 5:24MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mikael Granlund · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 5:53MINThomas VanekAssists: Mathew Dumba, Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 6:48NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:15MINJustin Fontaine: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:40NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:06NYRCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:54MINThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P2 11:13MINKyle Brodziak: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:52MINRyan Suter: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:04MINRyan Carter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:27
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Hagelin – Hayes9:38
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Miller9:40
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Fast5:54
xG 0.06–0.23 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Yandle5:08
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:59
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Staal – Girardi2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:27
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund13:25
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Koivu – Stewart – Niederreiter12:34
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Carter – Schroeder6:01
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba4:34
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Leopold – Dumba8:32
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:17
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).