Thu, Apr 2, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Vancouver Canucks 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 010 | 015 | 136 |
| CHI | 113 | 011 | 214 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Marcus Kruger, Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:46VANDerek DorsettUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 8:04CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Marian Hossa, Johnny Oduya · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 10:31CHIMarcus KrugerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:14CHIAntoine Vermette: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:45VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:17VANBo Horvat: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:27CHIAndrew Shaw: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:29VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:31VANRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Higgins – Bonino8:40
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows10:36
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Dorsett – Matthias – Vey9:25
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hansen – Horvat – Kenins10:44
xG 0.06–0.96 (6%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev15:06
xG 0.68–0.71 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber12:51
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Sbisa15:08
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 16–18goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Kruger – Teravainen8:33
xG 0.92–0.02 (98%)attempts 12–1goals 2–0
- Hossa – Versteeg – Toews8:42
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Richards – Vermette – Sharp10:58
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Bickell – Shaw – Saad7:18
xG 0.18–0.35 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Seabrook13:04
xG 0.95–0.55 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson11:10
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:04
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).