Thu, Apr 2, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 2, Los Angeles Kings 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 111 | 110 | 230 |
| LAK | 312 | 29 | 312 | 833 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23LAKDustin BrownAssists: Trevor Lewis, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:07LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 9:13LAKDrew DoughtyGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 7:55EDMTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Anton Lander, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
- P2 12:14LAKJordan NolanAssists: Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 18:38LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 2:53LAKRobyn RegehrAssists: Alec Martinez · Slap, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 3:15LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Justin Williams · Slap, 0.08 xG1–7
- P3 9:21LAKJeff CarterAssists: Dwight King, Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–8
- P3 18:30EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–8
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:13LAKRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:08EDMAnton Lander: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:40LAKKyle Clifford: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:58LAKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:31EDMAndrew Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lander – Hall4:54
xG 0.40–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gazdic – Fraser9:11
xG 0.65–0.41 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Pouliot – Nugent-Hopkins – Miller4:10
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov12:29
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Marincin – Davidson7:37
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Aulie – Klefbom3:39
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Aulie – Schultz2:25
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Nolan – Shore10:37
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli12:19
xG 0.96–0.65 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar11:37
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Stoll – Brown – Lewis12:03
xG 0.27–0.41 (39%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty18:48
xG 1.48–0.66 (69%)attempts 22–13goals 3–0
- Greene – McNabb16:06
xG 0.69–0.51 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Regehr – Martinez16:17
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).