Fri, Apr 3, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 012 | 212 | 436 |
| BUF | 011 | 116 | 211 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:36CHIPatrick SharpAssists: David Rundblad, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 13:10BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 5:29BUFJohan LarssonPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 12:42BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Brian Gionta, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
- P3 18:17CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–3
- P3 19:04CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:26CHIMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:59BUFJohan Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:51BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:16BUFTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:16CHIAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:13CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:30BUFNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:21CHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:14BUFZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:14CHIKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Versteeg – Toews9:57
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Teravainen8:21
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Vermette – Sharp9:12
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Bickell – Shaw – Saad8:30
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:50
xG 0.34–0.20 (64%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Timonen – Seabrook11:25
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Keith – Rundblad14:21
xG 0.19–0.81 (19%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Deslauriers – Grigorenko9:55
xG 0.73–0.25 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Hodgson – Dalpe – Varone6:04
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Ellis – Kaleta – Schaller5:59
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Ennis – Larsson15:44
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Ristolainen13:44
xG 0.98–0.42 (70%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Benoit – Zadorov8:19
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
- Strachan – Bogosian17:18
xG 0.15–0.29 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).