Fri, Apr 3, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 28 | 09 | 013 | 03 | 0 | 233 |
| NJD | 15 | 19 | 03 | 01 | 2 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51NJDStefan MatteauAssists: Adam Larsson, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.59 xG0–1
- P1 14:39MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 16:42MTLLars EllerAssists: Jeff Petry · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 4:37NJDReid BoucherAssists: Jon Merrill, Steve Bernier · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Reid Boucher stopped
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. NJD Jacob Josefson scored
- 4. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:32NJDJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40NJDAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 12:12MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Interference2 min
- P2 14:38NJDScott Gomez: Elbowing5 min
- P2 14:38NJDScott Gomez: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 8:25NJDStefan Matteau: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:25MTLJeff Petry: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11NJDStefan Matteau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:38NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:39NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:26
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – de la Rose7:51
xG 0.50–0.10 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Galchenyuk9:55
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Prust – Weise5:56
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Subban8:13
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban2:23
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu11:07
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Zajac – Matteau11:07
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Josefson7:01
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Henrique11:33
xG 0.15–0.37 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Gomez – Bernier – Boucher6:39
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson13:33
xG 0.91–0.38 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Merrill – Severson13:56
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Fraser – Gelinas11:20
xG 0.07–0.31 (20%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).