Fri, Apr 3, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 7, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 39 | 37 | 721 |
| DAL | 112 | 412 | 08 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:49STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Zbynek Michalek, David Backes · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 19:49DALTravis MoenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 0:15STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 0:32STLJaden SchwartzAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jay Bouwmeester · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–1
- P2 0:38DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 10:01DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 14:40DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Valeri Nichushkin · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–4
- P2 15:23DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Cody Eakin · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–5
- P2 19:34STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 4:44STLZbynek MichalekAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jay Bouwmeester · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–5
- P3 9:57STLAlex PietrangeloGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–5
- P3 19:38STLJaden SchwartzENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG7–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:01STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:28STLT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:50DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:49STLZbynek Michalek: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:14DALAntoine Roussel: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57STLT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P3 3:07STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:07DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:54DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P3 13:05STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Oshie – Schwartz10:56
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Backes – Berglund – Jaskin7:39
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 2–1
- Goc – Porter – Reaves2:45
xG 0.01–0.03 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Lehtera – Rattie4:49
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo8:12
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 2–2
- Michalek – Shattenkirk8:14
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Michalek – Gunnarsson2:33
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Fiddler – Sceviour4:24
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt4:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin8:09
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Eaves8:26
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Jokipakka13:01
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 17–3goals 2–0
- Nemeth – Jokipakka2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg13:21
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).