Fri, Apr 3, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 15 | 26 | 423 |
| ANA | 211 | 011 | 015 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33COLJohn MitchellAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:31ANAJiri SekacUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 17:58ANARickard RakellAssists: Corey Perry, Jiri Sekac · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:52COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 9:08COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Dennis Everberg, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 18:36COLDennis EverbergENAssists: Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:28ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:27COLJordan Caron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:36ANASami Vatanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:04COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:04ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:04ANASimon Despres: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:50ANAJames Wisniewski: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:10COLJarome Iginla: Holding2 min
- P3 12:26COLBrad Stuart: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Duchene11:13
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:31
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Caron – Hishon – Hamilton7:05
xG 0.03–0.28 (11%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg8:50
xG 0.06–0.63 (9%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Barrie5:35
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hejda – Holden3:04
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Guenin – Holden2:46
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:20
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Kesler – Palmieri9:59
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Perry – Rakell – Sekac10:25
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Etem – Wagner – Noesen6:40
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm15:16
xG 0.74–0.36 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Fowler11:17
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Despres12:37
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).