Sat, Apr 4, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 18 | 111 | 00 | 1 | 223 |
| CAR | 17 | 17 | 011 | 01 | 2 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:00CARElias LindholmAssists: Jordan Staal, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 3:27CARJordan StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 9:46PHIMichael RafflPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Michael Del Zotto · Deflected, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 18:10PHISean CouturierAssists: Brayden Schenn, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Nathan Gerbe scored
- 2. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 3. CAR Chris Terry scored
- 4. PHI Nick Cousins scored
- 5. CAR Victor Rask stopped
- 6. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:47PHIVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:29PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:56CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:27CARAndrej Nestrasil: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:50PHIChris VandeVelde: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- White – Rinaldo – Cousins6:22
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Read – Couturier12:01
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare10:09
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl13:25
xG 0.10–0.62 (13%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Manning12:10
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Del Zotto11:06
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Streit – Del Zotto5:35
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Staal – Lindholm13:46
xG 0.80–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Gerbe – Terry – Rask10:43
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Malone – Nestrasil6:33
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Semin – Skinner10:02
xG 0.12–1.12 (10%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk15:13
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Liles – Murphy14:44
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Jordan – Biega14:32
xG 0.58–1.04 (36%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).