Sat, Apr 4, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 115 | 110 | 111 | 336 |
| CBJ | 012 | 210 | 313 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:21PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Ian Cole · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 11:07PITBrandon SutterAssists: Ian Cole, Nick Spaling · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 16:25CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 18:28CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Marko Dano, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 6:46CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 9:29CBJScott HartnellGWGAssists: Marko Dano, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.30 xG2–4
- P3 10:10PITBen LovejoyAssists: Blake Comeau, Daniel Winnik · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:03CBJNick FolignoENAssists: David Savard, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:43CBJKevin Connauton: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:41PITSteve Downie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:52PITBeau Bennett: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:05CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:16PITSteve Downie: Holding2 min
- P3 12:30CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Comeau – Winnik9:54
xG 0.62–0.37 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling8:19
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Bennett4:53
xG 0.16–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Perron11:16
xG 0.26–0.56 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Lovejoy17:37
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Chorney12:11
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Cole – Pouliot10:45
xG 0.81–0.85 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 2–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Anisimov9:40
xG 0.79–0.17 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 2–1
- Hartnell – Dano – Wennberg7:10
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Dano4:39
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Morin6:33
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout17:34
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard15:56
xG 0.87–0.64 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 1–2
- Goloubef – Connauton11:39
xG 0.45–0.88 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).