Sat, Apr 4, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 4, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 211 | 17 | 112 | 430 |
| WPG | 316 | 112 | 18 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34WPGJim SlaterAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 5:24WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 9:37VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.63 xG1–2
- P1 17:37VANDaniel SedinAssists: Radim Vrbata, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P1 18:13WPGLee StempniakAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Tyler Myers · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 19:04WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 19:12VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 9:36WPGLee StempniakGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.29 xG3–5
- P3 17:55VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:55WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:15VANDan Hamhuis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:24VANSven Baertschi: Holding2 min
- P2 6:18WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:50VANSven Baertschi: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:51VANLuca Sbisa: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:51WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:01WPGTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:51VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Baertschi – Horvat8:02
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Higgins – Bonino8:02
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata3:15
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:45
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber12:15
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Sbisa14:26
xG 1.01–0.95 (52%)attempts 12–23goals 1–1
- Edler – Tanev12:19
xG 0.76–1.79 (30%)attempts 12–20goals 0–3
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Tlusty6:49
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Perreault – Lowry10:26
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele8:52
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik9:28
xG 0.53–0.89 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers12:18
xG 1.16–0.53 (69%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
- Enstrom – Trouba2:26
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Harrison – Pardy10:59
xG 0.58–0.80 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).