Sat, Apr 4, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 112 | 211 | 02 | 332 |
| OTT | 313 | 07 | 04 | 14 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21OTTMark StoneAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:03OTTClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 9:56OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 6:26WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Brooks Orpik, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 7:18WSHMike GreenAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 15:50WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: John Carlson, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:14OTTKyle TurrisGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:17WSHJoel Ward: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:27WSHEric Fehr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:55WSHBraden Holtby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:48WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:48OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:48OTTMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:32WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:32OTTEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Ovechkin – Backstrom5:49
xG 0.55–0.04 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Glencross7:32
xG 1.15–0.65 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Johansson9:31
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 16–3goals 2–0
- Laich – Latta – Wilson5:03
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson13:54
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner17:07
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Gleason – Green15:51
xG 0.76–0.80 (49%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone12:33
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Legwand – Hoffman – Chiasson7:05
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar10:11
xG 0.19–0.62 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Ryan – Smith – Zibanejad11:07
xG 0.45–1.01 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Karlsson19:18
xG 0.80–1.04 (43%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Gryba – Borowiecki13:02
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 5–15goals 1–2
- Wiercioch – Ceci14:07
xG 0.23–0.80 (22%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).