Sat, Apr 4, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 012 | 111 | 136 |
| NYR | 38 | 116 | 28 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10NYRRick NashAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:59NYRKeith YandleGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 12:24NYRDominic MooreAssists: Tanner Glass, Jesper Fast · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 19:57NYRDerek StepanSHAssists: Rick Nash, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 1:55NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Martin St. Louis, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–5
- P3 12:00NYRDominic MooreAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–6
- P3 16:30NJDJacob JosefsonAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Mark Fraser · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:12NYRDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P2 8:46NYRMats Zuccarello: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:46NJDMichael Cammalleri: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:04NYRCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:11NYRDominic Moore: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:01NJDEric Gelinas: Interference2 min
- P3 3:26NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bernier – Boucher10:16
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Matteau12:23
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Josefson8:40
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Henrique9:35
xG 0.37–0.61 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Gelinas6:25
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Gelinas – Merrill5:56
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson14:03
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Fast8:25
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:01
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Miller12:53
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Hagelin – Hayes11:51
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal15:54
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Yandle14:19
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 21–13goals 2–1
- Girardi – McDonagh13:21
xG 0.26–0.69 (27%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).