Sat, Apr 4, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 17 | 07 | 01 | 3 | 322 |
| MIN | 14 | 08 | 112 | 00 | 2 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:07MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:59DETRiley SheahanAssists: Stephen Weiss, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 17:13DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 6:33MINZach ParisePPAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. MIN Charlie Coyle stopped
- 4. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 5. MIN Jason Pominville scored
- 6. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 7. MIN Thomas Vanek scored
- 8. DET Riley Sheahan scored
- 9. MIN Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 10. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 11. MIN Chris Stewart stopped
- 12. DET Stephen Weiss stopped
- 13. MIN Mikael Granlund stopped
- 14. DET Niklas Kronwall stopped
- 15. MIN Justin Fontaine stopped
- 16. DET Darren Helm scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:27DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:24DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 7:36DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P2 15:22MINErik Haula: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:59DETDanny DeKeyser: Concealing puck2 min · PPG
- P3 8:31MINJustin Fontaine: Holding2 min
- P3 10:25DETStephen Weiss: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:29DETStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Sheahan – Pulkkinen7:35
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar9:40
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening8:12
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist10:49
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser13:01
xG 0.58–0.43 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:40
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Smith13:17
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund11:07
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Carter – Schroeder4:55
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stewart – Haula – Niederreiter4:26
xG 0.03–0.05 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine3:02
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Dumba4:06
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba2:27
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Prosser – Dumba4:39
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).