Sun, Apr 5, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 114 | 16 | 08 | 228 |
| DET | 010 | 116 | 010 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 4:42WSHMike GreenGWGAssists: Tim Gleason, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 12:59DETDarren HelmPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Teemu Pulkkinen · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:51DETDaniel Cleary: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:18WSHAlex Ovechkin: Holding2 min
- P2 1:56WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:38DETStephen Weiss: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:28DETMarek Zidlicky: Clipping2 min
- P2 12:14WSHJoel Ward: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45WSHMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:14WSHTroy Brouwer: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLatta – Wilson – Burakovsky4:39
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Johansson12:02
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Glencross6:02
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov11:49
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner13:39
xG 0.80–0.17 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Gleason – Green11:23
xG 0.17–0.30 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson15:47
xG 0.47–0.79 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Tatar11:33
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Sheahan10:54
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Weiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen4:57
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Glendening7:02
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser14:27
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:08
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Smith13:11
xG 0.03–0.58 (5%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).