Sun, Apr 5, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 39 | 07 | 428 |
| FLA | 04 | 112 | 09 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:20FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:06MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 11:27MTLPA ParenteauAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 17:42MTLDevante Smith-PellyAssists: PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.25 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:48FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:51FLAErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:05FLABrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:31MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:51FLAJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:15MTLDale Weise: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 3:13FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:29FLADerek MacKenzie: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:08MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:34FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:22MTLNathan Beaulieu: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:45
xG 0.79–0.08 (91%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Smith-Pelly5:34
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Prust – Mitchell – Weise6:18
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Eller – Smith-Pelly2:33
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Beaulieu9:22
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban13:37
xG 0.52–0.37 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Emelin – Beaulieu3:01
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:40
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Bolland – Hayes4:51
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck6:57
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky8:01
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad11:52
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic11:28
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson8:26
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).