Sun, Apr 5, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 122 | 014 | 011 | 147 |
| PHI | 14 | 19 | 27 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:21PITBrandon SutterPPAssists: David Perron, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 19:18PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Mark Streit, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:20PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:05PHIRyan WhiteAssists: Sean Couturier, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 19:50PHIMichael Del ZottoPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:36PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:31PITDaniel Winnik: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P2 12:02PITBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:39PITBeau Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:39PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:39PHIJakub Voracek: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:22PITBeau Bennett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:16PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Spaling – Bennett3:52
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Spaling2:55
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Comeau11:43
xG 0.54–0.35 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Winnik – Sutter – Bennett4:35
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Cole12:33
xG 1.47–0.23 (86%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Martin – Lovejoy17:00
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 23–12goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Pouliot13:20
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- White – Rinaldo – Cousins3:22
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl8:48
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare7:24
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Schenn – Read – Couturier11:28
xG 0.32–0.56 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Del Zotto2:20
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann13:36
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Schultz – Del Zotto14:56
xG 0.40–0.74 (35%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).