Tue, Apr 7, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 219 | 014 | 27 | 440 |
| NJD | 14 | 06 | 111 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45NYRKevin HayesAssists: Martin St. Louis, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:32NYRRyan McDonaghPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 17:44NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Steve Bernier, Scott Gomez · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 10:41NYRJames SheppardGWGAssists: Dominic Moore, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 11:32NJDSteve BernierAssists: Travis Zajac, Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 18:12NYRCarl HagelinENAssists: Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:41NJDMichael Cammalleri: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:14NJDAdam Larsson: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:25NJDJacob Josefson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:17NYRTanner Glass: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:39NYRDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:32NJDAdam Henrique: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:00NJDJacob Josefson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:36NJDJacob Josefson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:04NJDEric Gelinas: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Hagelin – Hayes7:41
xG 0.52–0.47 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Fast8:12
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Stepan – Kreider – Miller8:32
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Sheppard9:47
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal12:05
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Staal3:20
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Yandle – Girardi2:28
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Zubrus – Henrique4:18
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Bernier – Boucher6:52
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Josefson – Boucher2:30
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Josefson – Matteau3:42
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Gelinas8:05
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Merrill – Larsson2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Severson4:15
xG 0.19–0.27 (40%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).