Tue, Apr 7, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 015 | 115 | 310 | 440 |
| PHI | 210 | 18 | 29 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:54PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:44PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 9:34NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:46PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Nicklas Grossmann · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 2:45PHICarlo ColaiacovoAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 8:21NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 18:16NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: John Tavares · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:32NYIAnders LeeAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
- P3 19:57PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.01 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:19PHIRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:19NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:19PHIRyan White: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:20PHINicklas Grossmann: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:32NYIThomas Hickey: Holding2 min
- P1 11:07NYIJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:00PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:04PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:29NYILubomir Visnovsky: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:26PHIMichael Raffl: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Grabner – Nelson8:08
xG 1.22–0.25 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Okposo – Bailey – Lee10:29
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Boulton – McDonald – Cizikas6:03
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Tavares – Strome13:49
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey11:34
xG 1.54–0.38 (80%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Strait – Hamonic14:11
xG 0.92–0.45 (67%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
- Boychuk – Leddy15:08
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare6:25
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Schenn – Read – Couturier13:25
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- White – Rinaldo – Cousins7:32
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl8:59
xG 0.37–0.70 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Del Zotto13:49
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Streit – Del Zotto4:07
xG 0.04–0.04 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Manning12:18
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).