Tue, Apr 7, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 312 | 013 | 03 | 00 | 328 |
| OTT | 07 | 116 | 218 | 13 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Paul Martin · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:16PITBeau BennettAssists: Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 14:44PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rob Scuderi · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 14:41OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 0:34OTTMark StoneAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 18:12OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 2:43OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:19PITMaxim Lapierre: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:26OTTPatrick Wiercioch: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:22PITBen Lovejoy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:04OTTMarc Methot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:22OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:36OTTErik Condra: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:31PITBeau Bennett: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Crosby – Hornqvist11:38
xG 0.76–0.40 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Bennett2:01
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sutter – Perron – Bennett3:04
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Sutter – Spaling – Perron4:31
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Cole13:25
xG 0.42–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Martin – Lovejoy15:11
xG 0.83–0.79 (51%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Martin – Chorney2:16
xG 0.05–0.01 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone14:56
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Pageau9:28
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Condra – Zibanejad – Lazar10:09
xG 0.35–0.50 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Legwand – Smith – Chiasson5:06
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Ceci2:55
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch5:12
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Methot – Karlsson15:51
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 11–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).