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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 13, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Montréal Canadiens 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 7

Away

Montréal Canadiens

1

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.

TBL winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL1501101117
TBL212211318741

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:24TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Vladislav Namestnikov · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:51TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P1 12:16MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jarred Tinordi, Mike Weaver · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:15TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P2 18:14TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
  6. P3 6:26TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
  7. P3 6:43TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brian Boyle, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–6
  8. P3 16:55TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–7
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 8:59MTLNathan Beaulieu: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 15:54TBLBrett Connolly: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 4:39TBLRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 5:58MTLDavid Desharnais: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 13:35TBLBrett Connolly: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P2 17:50MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 0:00TBLMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 4:43TBLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 4:43MTLPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 14:06MTLP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
  11. P3 14:06TBLBrett Connolly: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 18:45MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 18:45MTLJiri Sekac: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
46% to win54% to win
← MTL attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Malhotra
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLTBL
17Shots on goal41
1.5Expected goals3.7
48Shot attempts60
41Faceoffs won30
4Power plays5
14Penalty minutes12
17Hits22
9Blocked shots18
7Giveaways8
3Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. Plekanec – Parenteau – Galchenyuk12:07

    xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0

  2. Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:41

    xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0

  3. Malhotra – Prust – Weise9:03

    xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1

  4. Bourque – Eller – Sekac8:07

    xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestMarkov – Subban12:55

    xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1

  2. Gilbert – Beaulieu14:19

    xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0

  3. Weaver – Tinordi9:25

    xG 0.49–1.05 (32%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestCallahan – Stamkos – Palat10:13

    xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0

  2. Kucherov – Namestnikov – Brown8:41

    xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1

  3. Filppula – Killorn – Johnson10:15

    xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

  4. Morrow – Boyle – Connolly9:58

    xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGarrison – Gudas11:38

    xG 0.92–0.20 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0

  2. Stralman – Hedman13:28

    xG 0.87–0.42 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1

  3. Brewer – Carle14:31

    xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.7 xGMTL 1.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 27/100 · #880 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.89 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.

TBL winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).