Tue, Apr 7, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 1, St. Louis Blues 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 117 | 03 | 131 |
| STL | 012 | 08 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:31WPGChris ThorburnGWGAssists: Jim Slater, Adam Pardy · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 14:32STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:32WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:48WPGDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:59STLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:50WPGDrew Stafford: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:41STLT.J. Oshie: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 8:35STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:27WPGMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00STLKevin Shattenkirk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Tlusty4:53
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Perreault – Lowry7:22
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele12:11
xG 0.56–0.70 (44%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik11:56
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba15:04
xG 0.90–0.45 (67%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
- Harrison – Pardy8:43
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Myers – Chiarot16:19
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Oshie – Schwartz12:28
xG 1.10–0.53 (68%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Lehtera – Rattie6:23
xG 0.14–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves8:24
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Backes – Berglund – Jaskin9:23
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Pietrangelo13:06
xG 0.86–0.62 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo4:11
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Michalek – Pietrangelo2:26
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).