Tue, Apr 7, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 114 | 014 | 114 | 242 |
| COL | 05 | 211 | 17 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:02NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Matt Cullen, Viktor Stalberg · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 15:32COLJarome IginlaAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 15:41COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 1:20NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 7:06COLJoey HishonGWGAssists: Marc-Andre Cliche · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:30COLCody McLeod: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:30NSHPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:34NSHMike Ribeiro: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:12COLNate Guenin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:41NSHGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:55COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:53COLNate Guenin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Beck – Bourque4:44
xG 0.57–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Stalberg – Jarnkrok5:11
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg8:04
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith7:06
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Jones9:51
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Weber – Josi11:03
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Franson – Ellis7:28
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog8:54
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Hishon2:37
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Caron – Hishon – Hamilton2:06
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg3:52
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Barrie2:56
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Stuart – Holden2:49
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie2:17
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).