Wed, Apr 8, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 015 | 012 | 035 |
| CBJ | 314 | 213 | 06 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:51CBJArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:56CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ryan Johansen, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 19:00CBJScott HartnellAssists: Marko Dano · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 3:30CBJRyan MurrayPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 16:34CBJJeremy MorinAssists: Mark Letestu, Cody Goloubef · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:27CBJJustin Falk: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:23TOREric Brewer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:21CBJScott Hartnell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:01CBJAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:19TORTim Erixon: Holding2 min
- P3 6:56CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Kadri – Panik3:55
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Booth – Kadri2:33
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sill – Panik – Bailey2:09
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Booth – Sill – Bailey4:05
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErixon – Rielly4:43
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner4:08
xG 0.19–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Rielly2:21
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dano – Wennberg11:30
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Morin9:00
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Johansen – Jenner10:17
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Anisimov10:06
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:10
xG 1.08–0.62 (64%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Goloubef – Murray15:02
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Falk – Prout14:32
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).