Wed, Apr 8, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 319 | 16 | 432 |
| ANA | 010 | 06 | 03 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:04DALVernon FiddlerGWGAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Shawn Horcoff · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 8:11DALJordie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 11:25DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.33 xG3–0
- P3 11:44DALPatrick EavesAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:52DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P1 19:21ANASimon Despres: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:44ANAClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:01ANASimon Despres: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour10:51
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:20
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin14:14
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Nichushkin13:54
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn15:59
xG 0.84–0.34 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Daley – Demers2:47
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:09
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Beleskey – Rakell2:59
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg3:48
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Palmieri – Sekac4:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Perry – Rakell – Sekac7:14
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Lindholm17:47
xG 0.32–0.47 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen15:38
xG 0.19–0.48 (29%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Despres – Fowler15:35
xG 0.39–1.15 (25%)attempts 7–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).