Thu, Apr 9, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 013 | 29 | 327 |
| PHI | 09 | 05 | 114 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48CARBrett BellemoreAssists: Eric Staal, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 12:51CARRyan MurphyPPGWGAssists: John-Michael Liles, Nathan Gerbe · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 16:19PHISean CouturierAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 19:21CARJordan StaalENAssists: Ron Hainsey · Slap, 0.55 xG3–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:45PHIJakub Voracek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:13CARJay McClement: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:51CARKeegan Lowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:51PHIVincent Lecavalier: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:20PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:30PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:30CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:22CARKeegan Lowe: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:22PHIVincent Lecavalier: Instigator2 min
- P2 9:22PHIVincent Lecavalier: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:22PHIVincent Lecavalier: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:10CARRyan Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:32PHINick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:53PHIMichael Del Zotto: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Dwyer – Malone6:49
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Nestrasil – Skinner – Lindholm6:49
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Terry – Rask7:39
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Staal10:32
xG 0.25–0.76 (25%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Bellemore12:20
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk12:09
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Lowe – Murphy9:12
xG 0.09–0.91 (9%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Read – Couturier9:26
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare3:20
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Rinaldo2:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- White – Rinaldo – Cousins4:55
xG 0.02–0.18 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Manning2:12
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Del Zotto11:32
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Manning8:12
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).