Thu, Apr 9, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 110 | 18 | 00 | 327 |
| MTL | 19 | 111 | 14 | 12 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19DETTomas TatarAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:36MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.00 xG1–1
- P2 6:24MTLJeff PetryAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 8:07DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:34DETDarren HelmSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 11:39MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:21MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:21MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P2 3:50DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P2 11:57MTLBrandon Prust: Holding2 min
- P2 15:34MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:21DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P3 7:42MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:58DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:07DETRiley Sheahan: Bench2 min
- P3 12:43MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Helm13:59
xG 0.32–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan9:03
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening2:07
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Pulkkinen – Glendening5:30
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser14:45
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:14
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Smith10:02
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Mitchell – Flynn5:00
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Smith-Pelly10:06
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Weise – de la Rose10:07
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:40
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban15:57
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu6:46
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry11:34
xG 0.05–0.43 (11%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).