Thu, Apr 9, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 13 | 210 | 011 | 00 | 324 |
| TBL | 28 | 115 | 07 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06NJDSteve BernierPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 6:26TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 9:13TBLNikita NesterovPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:17NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Stephen Gionta · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 17:42TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 17:58NJDSteve BernierAssists: Adam Henrique, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 1:22TBLTyler JohnsonPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:03TBLMark Barberio: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:21NJDAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:20NJDSeth Helgeson: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:06NJDTuomo Ruutu: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:27TBLNikita Nesterov: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:46NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:27NJDAdam Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:58NJDTuomo Ruutu: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:38TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P3 15:14NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:42NJDMark Fraser: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bernier – Henrique9:00
xG 0.66–0.03 (95%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Josefson – Matteau5:55
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac10:32
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Gionta9:30
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHelgeson – Hrabarenka9:44
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson14:27
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Fraser – Severson12:27
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov7:43
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Filppula – Namestnikov – Paquette11:16
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown6:59
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Drouin7:47
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWitkowski – Hedman11:25
xG 0.26–0.13 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Stralman – Hedman2:10
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Barberio13:36
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).