Thu, Apr 9, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 2, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 17 | 117 | 236 |
| FLA | 07 | 114 | 39 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:02BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 18:40FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 4:02FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 8:03FLABrad BoyesGWGAssists: Dave Bolland, Willie Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 13:15BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 15:14FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:02FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:18BOSBrett Connolly: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:18BOSBrett Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:18FLABrad Boyes: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:25BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:25FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:17FLABrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:37BOSAdam McQuaid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:37FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 14:37BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 14:37FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:54FLAWillie Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P2 17:44BOSBrett Connolly: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:23BOSReilly Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Krejci – Connolly6:37
xG 0.61–0.05 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Connolly2:58
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg10:19
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Lucic – Spooner – Pastrnak8:08
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Trotman17:48
xG 0.87–0.37 (70%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Bartkowski7:35
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug11:17
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 6–13goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Upshall10:27
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:52
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck10:05
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bolland9:00
xG 0.27–0.94 (22%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Campbell3:16
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–1goals 1–1
- Campbell – Kulikov2:44
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Petrovic2:34
xG 0.14–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).