Sat, Apr 11, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 18 | 19 | 322 |
| PHI | 014 | 116 | 05 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06OTTMark StonePPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 1:23PHIMatt ReadAssists: Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 16:18OTTJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Curtis Lazar, Marc Methot · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 11:49OTTMark StoneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:14PHIMichael Raffl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:24PHINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P2 5:06OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P2 14:06PHIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:52PHIJason Akeson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Lazar11:05
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Legwand – Smith – Chiasson7:52
xG 0.25–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone10:40
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Chiasson – Zibanejad3:09
xG 0.01–0.08 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson18:15
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki11:57
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Wiercioch – Ceci12:21
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl11:11
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare10:07
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Read – Couturier10:10
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Akeson – Cousins8:16
xG 0.10–0.26 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Del Zotto13:08
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Manning12:55
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Streit – Grossmann13:32
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).