Sat, Apr 11, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 010 | 07 | 125 |
| WPG | 110 | 05 | 47 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 0:48WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Adam Pardy · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 0:47WPGMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 6:48WPGLee StempniakAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 7:46WPGAdam LowryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 18:59WPGMatt HalischukAssists: Lee Stempniak, Keaton Ellerby · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:39CGYBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:04CGYDavid Schlemko: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:56CGYJosh Jooris: Interference2 min
- P3 3:04CGYDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:46WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 19:39WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBollig – Granlund – Jooris8:46
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Stajan – Ferland – Wolf4:22
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Colborne – Granlund – Bennett2:11
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Raymond – Shore – Wolf2:52
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRamage – Kulak15:13
xG 1.05–0.29 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Potter – Schlemko14:52
xG 0.94–0.34 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Engelland – Wotherspoon8:52
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Frolik – Scheifele12:09
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Stempniak – Halischuk – Copp10:11
xG 0.46–0.65 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Galiardi – Peluso – Lowry9:16
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Tlusty13:05
xG 0.22–0.82 (21%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Pardy14:22
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 5–0
- Harrison – Ellerby14:59
xG 0.10–0.65 (14%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot15:56
xG 0.13–0.91 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).