Sat, Apr 11, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 08 | 05 | 121 |
| LAK | 08 | 111 | 317 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 10:47LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Jarret Stoll, Andy Andreoff · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 6:03LAKBrayden McNabbGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 9:27LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Jake Muzzin, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 19:16LAKAndy AndreoffENAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:25LAKRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:54SJSJohn Scott: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:33LAKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:19LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:19SJSMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:36LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:16SJSChris Tierney: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:02SJSBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson8:16
xG 0.37–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Smith – Hertl5:11
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Lerg8:59
xG 0.24–0.66 (27%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney6:37
xG 0.07–1.05 (6%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Stollery2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Irwin – Fedun12:56
xG 0.47–0.61 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Stollery15:40
xG 0.53–1.14 (32%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Nolan7:25
xG 0.92–0.19 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Carter4:41
xG 0.78–0.19 (81%)attempts 9–1goals 2–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar5:13
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Stoll – Toffoli – Andreoff5:54
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez9:05
xG 1.38–0.08 (95%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Greene – McNabb13:28
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Regehr – Doughty14:17
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).