Sat, Apr 11, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 114 | 114 | 233 |
| FLA | 011 | 17 | 29 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:50NJDJordin TootooAssists: Travis Zajac, Eric Gelinas · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 11:08FLADave BollandAssists: Brad Boyes, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:59FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.45 xG1–2
- P3 11:01NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Peter Harrold · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 12:23FLAJaromir JagrPPGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.42 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:42NJDMark Fraser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:23FLADave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:28NJDAdam Henrique: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:28NJDAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:28NJDSteve Bernier: Kneeing5 min
- P3 10:28NJDSteve Bernier: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:28FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:28FLAAlexander Petrovic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bernier – Henrique8:29
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Josefson – Boucher8:49
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac11:14
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Gionta10:40
xG 0.73–0.71 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Gelinas12:33
xG 1.05–0.17 (86%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson17:15
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Fraser – Severson12:05
xG 0.96–0.86 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:30
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall10:24
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck9:15
xG 0.15–0.52 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bolland11:01
xG 0.34–0.86 (28%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad17:33
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic13:57
xG 0.43–0.61 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Kampfer12:51
xG 0.17–1.35 (11%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).