Sat, Apr 11, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 110 | 113 | 05 | 0 | 238 |
| TBL | 06 | 111 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:08TBLJonathan MarchessaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:00BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Chris Kelly, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 5:12TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 18:54BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Brenden Morrow stopped
- 2. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 3. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 4. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 5. TBL Ryan Callahan stopped
- 6. BOS Loui Eriksson stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:40TBLNikita Nesterov: Holding2 min
- P1 13:13BOSAdam McQuaid: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 15:39TBLRyan Callahan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:10TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:57TBLLuke Witkowski: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:57BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Krejci – Connolly11:03
xG 0.44–0.17 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:18
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Pastrnak5:44
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:43
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Krug11:54
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski2:40
xG 0.31–0.08 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Bartkowski12:07
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Boyle – Brown9:13
xG 0.21–0.09 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:15
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Paquette12:48
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Filppula – Namestnikov – Marchessault8:38
xG 0.09–0.53 (15%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Nesterov5:09
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman3:06
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – Barberio4:06
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).