Sat, Apr 11, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 18 | 110 | 225 |
| STL | 01 | 313 | 110 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:27STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Olli Jokinen, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 18:00STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alexander Steen, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 18:51MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Erik Haula, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 19:31STLJori LehteraGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 5:03STLJori LehteraPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 19:22MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:12STLDmitrij Jaskin: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:12MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:55STLDmitrij Jaskin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:07MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:35STLJori Lehtera: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:48MINChristian Folin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 16:54STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P3 18:00STLRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Coyle – Niederreiter10:00
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund11:44
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Stewart – Zucker11:13
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Cooke – Bergenheim – Haula10:45
xG 0.04–0.46 (8%)attempts 4–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Prosser11:25
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Scandella – Dumba3:24
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Leopold – Prosser3:40
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Schwartz – Rattie9:45
xG 0.37–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Berglund – Jaskin10:21
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko12:47
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Goc – Porter – Reaves11:16
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Gunnarsson15:24
xG 0.49–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Jackman – Bortuzzo16:06
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Michalek – Bouwmeester13:07
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).