Sat, Apr 11, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 114 | 110 | 230 |
| COL | 17 | 18 | 19 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01COLCody McLeodAssists: Tyson Barrie, Joey Hishon · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 8:03CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Bryan Bickell, Michael Paliotta · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:21COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Zach Redmond, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 15:20CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Marian Hossa, Michal Rozsival · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 19:26COLJarome IginlaPPGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 13:55CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:27CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:27COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:59CHIMarcus Kruger: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Teravainen won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Saad – Teravainen12:17
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Sharp – Bickell – Shaw13:27
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Vermette – Versteeg – Baun10:17
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Kruger – Nordstrom9:08
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Seabrook3:13
xG 0.89–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Rundblad13:56
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Oduya5:09
xG 0.12–0.14 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Caron – Hamilton5:09
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog17:07
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Hishon10:02
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Duchene15:19
xG 0.10–1.24 (8%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Barrie3:15
xG 0.28–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Siemens12:45
xG 0.71–0.53 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Hejda – Holden2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).